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BTC Inflection Signal Dashboard

On-chain (realized cap slope) + macro environment (four-condition rate-hike regime) — daily readings for the two decision rules

As of 2026-10-31 22:30
On-chain · Bottom-buying or capitulating?
In absorption (count re-accumulating, not a bottom confirmation)
Composite score +1.00 · 7-day / 30-day slope +66.0% / +17.0%; on-chain three conditions today 2/3: C1 ✅ (Day 74), C2 ❌ (8/12 days +$0.02B), C3 ✅ median 1.16 — all three conditions were met on the same day, 2026-10-02 (a one-time event, not reversed by a later pullback)
Macro backdrop · Is it turning cold?
Not turning cold; regime not confirmed
4 conditions 1/4 · 2Y 4.61 fell below the prior high of 4.92, consecutive-hold count reset to zero (as of 10/29, not triggered) · 10Y real yield 2.63 down from the 120-day high of 2.95 (as of 10/29, TIPS secondary market, not triggered) · Gold has held below $4,300 for 25 consecutive trading days (closed $3,898.90 on 10/30, triggered) · Fed claim-path manual flag reset to unclaimed · MOVE 100.2 (as of 10/30, 19.8 away from the 120 warning line)
Conclusion · 2026-10-02
On-chain 3 conditions triggered: all met on the same day.
BTC price (10-31)
$77,401
−8.4% vs 30 days ago
On-chain composite score
+1.00
Bottomed at −1.00 in mid-July
Realized cap 30-day slope
+17.0%/yr
30-day line +17.0%, 7-day line +66.0%
MOVE bond volatility
100.2
Down 3.1 from 103.3 five days ago · 19.8 away from the 120 warning line

Chokepoint Radar (Sentinel mode)

How far each threshold is from triggering, and which day or price level decides it. This turns the checklist from "met / not met" into distance. Purely derived metrics; rules unchanged

On-chain composite score

> 0 leans accumulation, < 0 leans capitulation; a bottom-buying signal requires a return to the accumulation zone first

Realized cap slope (annualized)

±5%/yr = accumulation / capitulation thresholds

Macro regime conditions met

4/4 for 5 consecutive days → rate-hike regime confirmed (macro backdrop turning cold)

MOVE Index

120 alert / 140 stress; staying normal = no macro pressure yet

One-year price distribution: support underfoot, walls overhead

Days closed in each $5k price band since 2025-07 (Coinbase daily) — supply below the current price is in profit = support; supply above is trapped = resistance, requiring sustained demand to work through layer by layer

Regime four-condition checklist (Section 7.2)

1/4 met today · Geopolitical escalation flag = ON

What would flip the signal

  • 2 / 10On-chain turns positive:Once the state enters absorption (ABSORPTION), a 10-day count begins; triggering it means "buying the dip" — after entering absorption on 10-21, the count once built up to 9/10, then on 10-29 a shock shifted it to mild absorption (FLAT_ABSORPTION), interrupting it and resetting the count to zero; on 10-30 it re-entered absorption (ABSORPTION), now at 2/10.
  • 0 / 5Macro cooling confirmed:All four conditions met and held for 5 consecutive trading days → regime confirmed. At that point, raise the weighting on downside tail risk, stick strictly to limit orders, and wait for the 10Y real yield to peak before calling a confirmed bottom.
  • 100.2MOVE above 120:Enters alert; crossing 140 enters stress; the criteria are not changed intraday.

All three on-chain conditions were met on the same day, 2026-10-02; the 4 macro conditions are at 1/4 (Gold holding below $4,300 is met; 2Y holding a new high, 10Y real yield hitting a new 120-day high, and the Fed claim path are all not met), the confirmation window has not started (0/5), and the paradigm shift is not yet confirmed.