Industry score breakdown
History: industry vs market
Industry × price divergence
Prices tell us what the market fears; industry data tells us whether that fear is justified.
Inflection five-signal check
AI Monetization Gap Tracker
The dashboard's most important leading indicator: money spent (hyperscaler balance-sheet expansion) vs money earned back (compute revenue). Tracked independently, auto-updated with earnings.
Playbook: → −15, −25pp with CapEx still +40% = Overbuild alert escalates · → 0, +10pp with a strong supply chain = the capex story evolves into a profit story, bull market quality improves.
Revenue Quality — AI revenue quality monitor
Revenue figures tell us how much was earned; financing structure tells us how much of that revenue was paid for with money customers actually earned themselves. SPVs/securitization appearing = unconditionally lower trust in the entire supply chain.
Trust ladder: 🟢 Customer cash flow > CapEx · 🟡 ≈ (reliant on external financing) · 🟠 < (reliant on vendor financing) · 🔴 SPV/securitization emerging — at red level, chip-layer revenue signals are automatically downgraded.
A-share AI dual baskets (Global chain: 9 · Domestic chain: 5)
Two separate chains of evidence, equal-weighted with separate NAVs: Global chain = orders tied directly to global AI capex (optical modules/optical components/optical chips/PCB/copper-clad laminate/contract manufacturing/liquid cooling); China supply chain = DeepSeek theme / compute self-sufficiency (AI chips/servers/AI computing IDC). Last 6 months vs CSI 300 (rebased to 100).
Compute spot price ladder (Vast.ai live)
B200 / H200 / H100 SXM per-GPU hourly rental, each rebased to first record = 100. Only H100 falling = generational depreciation (normal); all three tiers falling together = genuine oversupply, the earliest physical evidence.
Warning sentinel details (unscored)
3M excess return vs benchmark by segment
Group median − benchmark return over the same period (US stocks vs SPY, A-shares vs CSI 300). Negative = money is leaving that segment.
All holdings detail
Price moves and valuations in one table, for checking the raw data behind the signals.