What to watch: Domestic equipment/materials start losing share on major fab lines; leading fabs systematically shift orders back to overseas supply chains.
Doesn't count:Single-month swings, share price moves, short-term news about a single company.
Verdict:—
Sources: SEMI / SEAJ data, leading companies' quarterly reports and announcements, export control changes · Frequency: daily check
Semiconductors / Chips · Cycle position—
④ Semiconductor sales growth peaks
What to watch: SIA global monthly semiconductor sales YoY, 2-3 consecutive months of decline counts.
Doesn't count:A single-month pullback, MoM swings, or a standalone cycle in one category (e.g., memory).
Latest reading: —
Sources: SIA monthly reports (public reprints) · Frequency: monthly check
Market readings · Not counted toward thesis
STAR 50 and constituent breadth
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—
Sources: Tushare index daily data, TradingView MAs · Frequency: daily
Market readings · Not counted toward thesis
STAR Market IPOs and fundraising
—
Sources: exchange disclosures · Frequency: daily
STAR · Semiconductors · Chips · AI · Optical module ETFs · For reference only, not a signal
STAR 50 top 10 weights · Constituent breadth detail
Weights from latest STAR 50 rebalance · MAs from TradingView daily charts
Alert received · 3-step check
Verify facts: Check each number in the message against live values. If one is fake, discard the whole message and stop.
Check what matters most: First-order or second-order? Semiconductor sales and fab orders are first-order; index and ETF moves are second-order; single-company news is third-order.
Check logic: Check against the two theses above: triggered? Not triggered = no action. Take a look, then close it.