"Net zero is the biggest market of the 21st century" is true, but the market has already ranked it: money is buying the wiring, not the generation; it is buying price increases, not emissions cuts. This dashboard puts next-generation energy, carbon removal, sustainable agriculture and net-zero infrastructure on the same yardstick: YTD returns and official price series throughout, no installed-capacity figures, no pledge figures.
Along the same net-zero thesis, the end closest to electrons is making money and the end closest to carbon is losing it. The YTD return gap has widened to 72 percentage points.
Grid equipment and construction names (GEV, PWR) are up nearly 30-45% YTD, fertilizer and farm machinery are up more than 20%, while solar manufacturing — from LONGi and Trina to First Solar — has fallen double digits across the board, and nuclear plays, after spiking in 2025, have given back nearly 60%. The market isn't pricing emissions reductions; it's pricing the scarcity rent on power delivery and rising commodity prices. The split on the carbon removal side is even sharper: purchase commitments are counted in millions of tons, actual deliveries in thousands of tons, and the real cost of direct air capture is still three to five times the 45Q credit.
We split the net-zero thesis into five segments and take each group's median YTD return, so single-stock noise stays out of the conclusion. The result is a clean monotonic sequence: the closer a segment is to "delivering power to load," the more money it makes; the closer to "turning light into electricity," the more it loses.
Group median, not an equal-weight index. Transmission = grid equipment and construction; Manufacturing = US and Chinese solar and residential installers. Red for gains and green for losses follows A-share convention; signs are shown as well.
| Ticker | Name | Group | YTD ↓ |
|---|
Sorted by YTD return, descending; all derived from public exchange closing prices, no FX adjustment. Click a header to re-sort; click a group to filter.
| 2026-10-01 | NERC PRC-029-1 ride-through standard takes mandatory effectWhether existing inverter-based resources comply; non-compliance fines and retrofit demand will surface for the first time | Triggered |
| 2026-11-10 | Suspension of China's 0.1% extraterritorial rare earth rule expiresDy/Tb exposure in data center cooling and UPS permanent-magnet motors and direct-drive wind turbines; heavy rare earth licenses already take 60–120 days in practice | Pending |
| 2026-11-27 | Suspension of China's export bans to the US on gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials expiresSynthetic diamond for PDC bits and gallium for power devices lose exemptions on the same day; the tungsten whitelist is down to just 15 firms | Pending |
| 2026-12-31 | FERC requires NERC to submit computational load standardsData center ride-through rules due in 2027; campus-level storage goes from optional to mandatory | Pending |
| 2027-01-01 | Polysilicon energy consumption standard GB 29447-2026 takes effectThe only forced-exit mechanism left after the shutdown fund was blocked; can it restore manufacturers' gross margins? | Pending |
DOE/NLR: top-grade GOES is made only by Nippon Steel, with no US source at all; import dependence for high-grade GOES is about 90%; Cleveland-Cliffs is the only US GOES mill and makes only mid-grade material. GOES prices have roughly doubled since 2020; since 2025-08-15, electrical steel cores have been covered by Section 232 at 50%. Each MVA of transformer capacity requires 200–400 kg of GOES. Baosteel is raising grain-oriented silicon steel prices by CNY 300/t in 2026-07.
DOE/NLR 2026-05 · Breakthrough Journal · Baosteel 2026-07 price adjustment
NRC FY2027 budget $892.3M（−8%）, staffing 2,606 FTE (−7%), 500+ departures in 16 months; Executive Order 14300 requires rulings on new reactors within 18 monthswithin; relicensing adjudicated within 12 months. NRC advises applicants to stagger filings (1 per 3 months). US HALEU commercial capacity before 2029 is roughly zero, with first-core fuel for SMRs entirely dependent on DOE inventory allocation. Nuclear concept stocks median YTD -59.9% — the clock on this segment runs on permitting and fuel, not capital.
Senate EPW FY2027 · Orrick 2026-04 · POWER · HALEU allocation
Global sulfur exports after the Hormuz closure −45%; starting 2026-05-01, China halting exports of smelter by-product sulfuric acid through year-end. Indonesian HPAL output cut by about 50%, Mosaic cut phosphate output by 2 million tons, and acid's share of hard-rock lithium costs rose from 3% to 11%. In 2026, more than half of global lithium, cobalt and rare earth output is exposed to sulfuric acid disruption.
US annual demand 15M SWU, with only 8.8 million available domestically; Urenco USA's additional 2.1 million SWU won't arrive until first output in 2032. Conversion spot $62–65/kgU, whereas the historical "multi-year high" was only 23; Cameco Port Hope's H1 2026 output, due to an unplanned outage, −11%. The Russian LEU waiver expires 2028-01-01 ; DOE's FY2027 draft budget includes no HALEU operating funds.
Urenco 2026-06-02 · Cameco Q2 2026-07-30 · Centrus 8-K 2026-08-05
Commerce's 2026-02 final ruling on Chinese anode material: antidumping 93.5% plus countervailing duties, totaling ≥160%, but the ITC rejected 2026-03-12 (no injury), so no duties are levied; only the existing 35% tariff remains. That day Syrah −29%. China's suspension of tighter graphite scrutiny for the US runs only until 2026-11-27.
The Tongwei- and GCL-led CNY 50bn acquire-and-shut-down fund was blocked on antitrust grounds on 2026-01-09; replaced by a "full-cost pricing" pact (floor of CNY 45,000–48,000/t) and GB 29447-2026 energy consumption standard, effective 2027-01-01. Tongwei quoted CNY 43/kg at end-August; China's new installations in May −90.7%. This is administrative capacity cutting after a glut, not a physical shortage.
Fund blocked · pv magazine 2026-08-10 · pv magazine 2026-04-17
DOE/NLR interviews, 2026-05: "Bushings and OLTCs are now the biggest risk in the market." 345 kV bushing lead times: >130 weeks，Zero US suppliers of 765 kV bushings, while bushings and OLTCs have 80–90-week manufacturing lead times and must be imported from Germany and Switzerland; the only US producer of on-load tap changers is Reinhausen (private, ~40% global share); the only US maker of transposed conductors is Sam Dong (unlisted). HSP won't open the first US dry-type bushing plant, in Charlotte, until 2026-07, with annual capacity of 3,500 units.
DOE/NLR TP-5700-96742 2026-05 · DistroForge 2026-07-21 · Trench/HSP 2026-07-30
Only a handful of forges worldwide make large gas turbine rotor forgings, and there are already cases of "turbines shipped without rotors and fitted on site later" to protect schedules; Siemens Energy says forgings and castings face "several more quarters of pain." Nuclear island: Japan Steel Works' 14,000-ton press makes most of the world's reactor pressure vessels, and in 2026-07 announced it would double nuclear component capacity by 2028; only 5–6 companies worldwide can make RPV forgings, with a 2–3-year lead time per piece. Competitor: Korea's Taewoong won its first Sizewell C forging contract in 2026-07.
Neutron Bytes 2026-08-24 · POWER 2026-09-01 · Industrial Info 2026-07
GE Vernova Q2 2026 gas turbine backlog plus slot reservations 116 GW, with a year-end target of ≥125 GW and 2031 bookings already open; per-kW quotes are 10–20 percentage points above 2025Q4, with an end-2027 target of $600/kW (about 3x 2019). Siemens Energy 95 GW, sold out through FY2028; Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 35 GW, delivering 2028–2030. Deposits for a 3 GW portfolio of slots, $400–500M are non-refundable. Combined-cycle plants entering service in 2030–2031 cost ≥$2,000/kW.
Utility Dive 2026-07-23 · Utility Dive 2026-08-10 · Utility Dive 2026-08-13
2026 lead times for 145–550 kV GIS and offshore HVDC converter stations, No public figure found despite repeated searches — vendors don't disclose, and benchmark data sits behind paywalls. Indirect evidence: Siemens Energy Grid Technologies backlog €51bn (book-to-bill 1.48), ABB doubling HV capacity at Mount Pleasant, and "offshore HVDC systems ordered today won't be delivered until the 2030s." The lack of visible lead times is itself a Sentinel signal.
ERCOT 2026-04-01 onward, new storage contracts must be grid-forming; the NERC PRC-029-1 ride-through standard becomes mandatory 2026-10-01 ; AEMO requires storage ≥100 MW to be grid-forming, and 74% of Australia's 33 GW pipeline is grid-forming; in 2026 China classified LVRT, HVRT and dynamic reactive power failures at storage of 220 kV and above as major hazards, and made "four-capability" retrofits of distributed PV a precondition for grid connection. Whether existing IBRs comply, and the fine risk, get almost no mainstream coverage.
EPE · ERCOT NOGRR272 · NERC PRC-029 timeline · Tansuo Energy Storage 2026-06-15
2026-05 to 08: California's Imperial Irrigation District denied 287M gallons of cooling water for a 330 MW data center (developer sued); Belgium's Wallonia denied Google permission to draw water from the Sambre River; Denver passed a one-year permitting moratorium; Ohio EPA withdrew the nation's first general water permit for data centers; Virginia imposed statewide drought water restrictions. The New Mexico State Land Office rejected a short pipeline route, delaying Oracle's 2.5 GW project by 6 months. The beneficiaries are dry and closed-loop cooling.
BGR 2026-08-12 · TechTimes 2026-08-17 · FieldNews 2026-08-14
China's share of NdFeB magnet manufacturing 92–94%; heavy rare earth licenses nominally take 45–60 days, but in practice "most 60–120+ days without a decision"; enforcement tightened in 2026-07. The 0.1% extraterritorial rule is suspended until 2026-11-10. Non-China capacity: MP's Q2 NdPr output was 840 t, against a total US magnet target of 10,000 t/yr; Lynas secured a 4-year US offtake with an NdPr floor price of $110/kg. Wind turbines use 1–2 t of NdFeB per MW.
2026 PV silver use is expected to fall 151 Moz（−19%）, but mine supply is flat at 844 Moz, and the structural deficit widens from 40.3 to 46.3 Moz. After a January high of $115–121/oz, silver fell below $80; in early September 65–68. LONGi began mass-producing copper-metallized cells in Q2, but pure-copper TOPCon mass production is widely expected only by 2028–2030.
pv magazine 2026-04-15 · pv magazine 2026-01-06 · Fortune 2026-09-04
US transformer manufacturing employs about 15,000 workers, while meeting demand would require 3x; industry estimates put nuclear-certified welders at <5,000 workers, and the average welder is 55 years old; the fiber installer shortfall is 58,000 workers. Since 2025-01 the NRC has lost 500+ only 59 new professional hires, FY2026 attrition of 14–15% and an FY2027 budget cut of 8%, while an executive order requires rulings on new reactor applications within 18 months. PECO's first strike in a century (2026-07-04) shows lineworkers' bargaining power now extends to striking in storm season. No listed company controls this segment.
Manufacturing Mag 2026-06-11 · Neutron Bytes 2026-08-31 · ANS 2026-05-14
TGS|4C 2026-05-15: Europe's 2026–2040 HV subsea cable gap >22,000 km, with an annual supply gap of up to 27%; HVDC turnkey prices vs. 2024 estimates +30%. Global HV cable-laying vessels number only about 60, most of them aging. Three European makers control 75% of the HVDC cable market, with combined backlog of about €38bn, with capacity sold out beyond 2029. Korea's first dedicated HVDC cable-laying vessel won't arrive until 2028.
Average US power transformer lead time 128 weeks, GSUs 144 weeks, high-capacity units up to 4 years; since 2019 power transformer prices are up 77% and distribution transformers 78–95%. Korea's big three had combined backlog at end-Q1 2026 of >KRW 32 trillion, HD Hyundai Electric's backlog is $8.49bn, its 2026 order target was raised 23%, and 73% of Q1 new orders came from North America; peer LS Electric is up 122% YTD while it is negative, a pricing divergence within the group. Waratah's 1,680 MWh battery ran at half capacity for nearly a year after a single HV transformer failed.
On 2026-07-22 a fault on a Dominion 230 kV line in Northern Virginia sent 3.1–3.8 GW of data centers and crypto mines onto backup power and off the grid within 30 seconds, the largest such event in PJM history; the grid took 11 minutes to stabilize. FERC ordered NERC to submit by 2026-12-31 computational load registration and the first reliability standards; voltage/frequency ride-through requirements are due in 2027. Implication: data centers go from "free to shed load at any time" to "must ride through," making campus-level grid-connected storage and rotary UPS mandatory.
Utility Dive 2026-08-12 · PJM Inside Lines · TechCrunch 2026-07-25
Custom synchronous condenser lead time 18–30 months, mid-size units $8–15M each. ABB and VoltaGrid signed for 27 flywheel-equipped condensers in 2025-11, with 35 more units signed in 2026-03, totaling 62 units dedicated to behind-the-meter data center power to meet AI chip voltage-stability requirements. After the Iberian blackout, Spain's P.O. 7.4 took effect on 2026-03-17, and a regional reactive-power capacity market launches in 2026 Q4; CNMC has opened sanction proceedings against five energy companies.
ABB 2026-03 · pv magazine 2026-03-25 · ENTSO-E final report 2026-03-20
On 2026-07-28 INNIO announced 1.1 GW, 200+ units of Jenbacher orders for data center campuses; VoltaGrid ordered 1.5 GW from INNIO in 2026-02; Wärtsilä has booked 2 GW in the US since 2025 (412 MW in Ohio, 790 MW off-grid in Texas). Lead times for 3.5–4.5 MW diesel gensets: 90–110 weeks, rotary UPS 60–80 weeks; Caterpillar's backlog is a record $63B, Cummins allocations run into 2028; Virginia has permitted about 27 GW of diesel backup generators.
INNIO 2026-07-28 · Wärtsilä 2026-04-23 · Terrapin lead-time table 2026-06-10
On 2026-03-02 Iran struck Ras Laffan, removing overnight 30–38% of global helium supply; QatarEnergy says repairs will take 3–5 years; spot $1,000–1,200/mcf vs 500–550 on long-term contracts. Mainstream coverage only discusses semiconductors; exposure in cryogenic superconductors, MRI, fusion and fiber optics is almost entirely overlooked.
European APT, over six weeks in Feb–Apr 2026: +63–94%, +550% vs. pre-controls; tungsten-bearing PDC drill bits over seven months +20–38%, Ulterra's manufacturing costs rose 45–50% in a year, and industry drill bit spending in 2026 could rise by $1bn. Synthetic diamond used in PDC cutters is a controlled Chinese superhard material, and the suspension for the US runs only until 2026-11-27. China's tungsten export whitelist has only 15 firms.
Controller YTD returns come from the TradingView scanner API in local currency; unlisted controllers are excluded from the median. Coverage: Institutional = widely discussed by sell-side and mainstream financial media; Industry = trade media or company filings only; Filings = company disclosures only.
The vertical dashed line marks the transmission median of +42.5%. The further left a segment sits, the more likely a gap between physical tightness and price; 3M median is the three-month median, used to spot pullbacks in already-priced segments.
| Segment | Ticker | Name | YTD | 3M |
|---|
By default only laggards with YTD returns below +10% are shown; click a segment to filter, or click "All" to see the full scan universe. Data pulled 2026-09-07 from the TradingView scanner API, local currency, no FX adjustment.
The hardest constraint on net-zero infrastructure isn't capital; it's voters' electricity bills. When electricity CPI keeps outpacing headline CPI, connecting data centers and new load stops being a technical problem and becomes a political one. This is the only reading on the dashboard with a countdown attached.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted. A positive gap means power prices are outpacing inflation. 2025-10 is missing due to the federal shutdown; the line break marks that month. Series pulled from FRED on 2026-10-15.
Generation still has headroom; the bottleneck is interconnection and transmission, not installed capacity.
Durable carbon removal is the only segment on this dashboard with no price discovery yet. Purchase volumes are set by a handful of buyers, deliveries by physics and power prices, and the two are two orders of magnitude apart. The figures below are the entire economics of this segment.
Agriculture's net-zero path runs through synthetic nitrogen: ammonia production uses about 2% of global energy. Nitrogen fertilizer prices surged YTD, making fertilizer and farm machinery stocks the second-best-performing segment on this dashboard, while farmers' costs worsened in step. Higher prices are the economic case for precision fertilization and biological nitrogen fixation, and also the reason neither can gain traction in the near term.
This segment's thesis holds only if the transmission premium comes from a structural bottleneck rather than a capacity-cycle mismatch.
| Monthly · CPI | Gap between electricity CPI and headline CPIIf the gap keeps widening above 2pp, new load interconnection becomes a political issue | Ongoing watch |
| Q4 2026 | Whether solar manufacturing gross margins turn positiveIf margins turn positive while transmission order growth peaks, this value chain ranking is a capacity-cycle mismatch | Pending |
| Q4 2026 | Grid equipment order growth vs installation growthOrder growth below installation growth signals bottleneck rents starting to fade | Pending |
| within 2026 | Actual deliveries in STRATOS's first full yearActual deliveries vs 500,000 t nameplate: the credibility anchor for the entire DAC industry | Pending |
| Persistent | Second major buyer of durable carbon removalUntil purchase concentration falls, this segment is a single buyer's procurement budget, not a market | Ongoing watch |
| Persistent | Whether farm machinery stocks follow fertilizer prices downIf they follow it down, the agriculture segment was earning price gains rather than transition gains, which has nothing to do with net zero | Ongoing watch |
| Counter-signal | Nuclear concept stocks outperform againIf an SMR wins its first commercial power price contract, nuclear's pullback is a matter of timing, not a refutation | Counter · watch |
This page measures four themes with the same yardstick: YTD returns are all derived from public exchange closing prices with no FX adjustment, groups use medians rather than equal-weight indices, and no single stock drives a conclusion; macro prices all come from official monthly FRED series, with the as-of month shown at the top of the page. Groupings are defined by this page and each company belongs to only one group (e.g. Bloom Energy sits in transmission for its data center power business, not hydrogen). Changing the grouping would change the medians, so they are not directly comparable with other institutions' sector indices. The carbon removal segment has no public price series: the 45Q credit is a statutory value, cost ranges and nameplate capacity are estimates by project developers and third parties, and purchase concentration is as reported; all are backfilled by event and not updated with prices. The nitrogen fertilizer PPI in the agriculture segment is a producer price index, not a landed retail price. This page is a research tool and personal notes, not investment advice.