Everyone's giving you an opinion — bulls tell a story, bears call it a bubble. Almost no one gives you readings that don't contaminate each other: whether the industry is deteriorating, whether this is a good price, and whether a cycle turn has arrived. ai_pulse splits these three questions into three independent scores, answered automatically every day from 40+ indicators — spanning U.S. and A-share equities, earnings cash flow, and spot compute rental rates.
Industry scorecards look strong, but big customers' cash doesn't add up. The industry score is 87.5, still in the "strong" band; yet big-customer cash flow coverage is only 1.1x (the healthy line is 1.5x), and 5 major customers account for 70% of Nvidia's receivables. Earnings are concentrated too: S&P earnings rose 36.4% year-over-year, but only 18.7% excluding Nvidia, Micron, and Google. Demand is real: TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a record $46.7 billion, with Q4 guidance midpoint up 58%. Trouble spots remain: Amazon's data centers lack enough power to energize racks that have already arrived; SK Hynix says the HBM (high-end memory) shortage will persist through 2030, keeping supply tight. On the dashboard, the balance-sheet expansion pace reads +58%, with Nvidia revenue +83.4%, TSMC +35.2%, and Micron (HBM) +256% still holding steady. Next, watch whether the power grid can ease the bottleneck.
Price check: the price score rebounded to 55, but still trails the industry score of 87.5 by a wide margin, showing the market remains more worried than the industry data. The semiconductor sector's drawdown narrowed to −22.2%, but it's still in the warning zone. The selloff continues: Nvidia, Micron, and Broadcom fell 4% to 6%, dragging down AI leaders across the board, triggered by Intel's weak quarterly guidance (memory price hikes weighing on PCs). But the options market's fear gauge (VIX) didn't jump along with it, staying in the calm range near — — stocks are falling hard while fear hasn't followed, an inconsistent signal. On valuation, Nvidia's P/E rebounded to 25.9x, still not expensive; AMD's P/E is more than triple that, with its high valuation not yet backed by earnings. Next, watch whether the fear gauge follows upward and whether borrowing costs (credit spreads) move with it.
A genuine cycle turn = all five conditions firing at once: capex stalling + revenue failing to keep pace with investment + NVDA stalling + TSMC/HBM weakening + SMH underperforming over the long term. Any single condition alone is mostly noise.
The AI bull market comes down to one question: can the money cloud giants are spending be earned back from the compute chain. That gap is still stuck at −13.9 percentage points, not widening further. The five major cloud giants' capex growth rose to +58.0% year-over-year, not slowing down; the median price increase across entry-level AI model generations is 100%—most of the extra spending is being recouped through price hikes passed on to users, with a portion still unrecovered. The pricing sub-score rose back to 55, the semiconductor sector's pullback also narrowed to −22.2%, and the industry sub-score remains steady at 87.5—but the chip stock selloff continues, with AMD down 10.9% leading the decline and TSMC down 5.9%; this still hasn't been fully priced in. Next, watch whether this gap keeps widening. Current readings:
Not an opinion — the ledger recomputes itself every earnings season.
This page is just a snapshot — the full dashboard is live. The full version includes revenue-quality monitoring (customer cash-flow coverage, vendor financing, SPV sentinels), the A-share dual basket (global chain vs. domestic chain), the compute spot-price ladder (observed B200/H200/H100 rental rates), and the complete sub-component readings for all three evidence chains.
The warning light stays at 4 red, 5 amber, unchanged; but the compute spot-price (H100) light has flipped from normal to data-unavailable — this feed has gone dark. Among A-shares, the group tied to the global supply chain remains in the warning zone; the domestic-chain group reads −13.8pp. Supplier financing risk remains the biggest thing to watch: Broadcom, together with banks and Blackstone, set up a $63 billion shell company specifically to buy chips and lease them to Anthropic, with Broadcom itself backstopping how much these chips can be resold for later; Oracle has also capped new external financing at $20 billion (fiscal 2026 guidance was $48 billion), making it more reliant on supplier financing and customer prepayments going forward. The financing-chain proxy reading (ORCL) weakened to −1.0pp, while Micron (HBM) +256% hasn't worsened. Next, watch whether A-share global-chain names can break out of the warning zone, and whether the compute spot-price data gets restored.
Price tells us what the market is afraid of; industry data tells us whether that fear is justified. When both worsen together, something has genuinely gone wrong; when the industry worsens but price still looks fine, that's the most dangerous case, because price hasn't caught up yet; when the industry looks fine but price suddenly drops, it may just be the market overreacting.
If the industry health score keeps declining while the stock price falls in step, the two evidence chains are no longer independent of each other — that means they share a common hidden variable (most likely liquidity), and the layered judgment loses its meaning — the three scores are no longer three independent pieces of evidence.