Everyone's got an opinion for you — some are shouting buy the dip, others are shouting run for the exits. Almost no one gives you a set of readings that don't contaminate each other: whether on-chain money is accumulating at lows or capitulating at a loss, whether the macro backdrop is cold, whether the rule's conditions have actually fired. btc_pulse splits these questions into two independent evidence chains and answers them automatically every day — realized cap slope, the four-condition rate-hike regime, MOVE bond volatility. BTC —, on-chain score +1.00.
The on-chain accumulation counter was interrupted and reset to zero for the second time this month — this time after Binance allegedly lost $6.36 billion to a hack, including 18,300 BTC still unrecovered. After that, this cycle restarted at 2/10, with only one day built up so far; it needs ten consecutive days to count. On-chain score +1.00, already above the neutral line +0.25. The realized-cap slope has turned upward: the 7-day climbed to +66.0%/yr (↑), the 30-day widened to +17.0%/yr (widening), buying pressure is strengthening. ETF net-inflow days are stuck at 8/12, but total net inflow over the past 12 days has nearly collapsed to zero, leaving just +$0.0B, further from the threshold. SOPR median 1.16, current price —, over the past 30 days —, still not positive; daily RSI at 36.2, momentum weak. The score bottomed out in mid-July at −1.00. Going forward, there's just one thing to watch: whether the accumulation counter can string together 10 consecutive days.
The rate-hike regime (whether inflation forces the Fed to hike again) stands at 1/4 of four conditions met, with a confirmation count of 0/5 — not yet confirmed, and the broader backdrop hasn't cooled. New data: the Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 28 by a 10-2 vote, with 2 officials favoring a hike; core PCE released Oct 29 came in at 3.1% y/y and Q3 GDP at a 3.4% annualized rate, both above expectations — inflation remains sticky, leaving no room for rate cuts. Still ahead: the Nov 2 US ISM, Nov 5 UK rate decision, Nov 6 US nonfarm payrolls, Nov 9 China CPI/PPI, and Nov 10 US CPI — these will determine whether the regime gets confirmed. Bond-market stress (MOVE, a measure of bond volatility) has risen to —, still some distance from the 120 warning line and the 140 stress line — tightening pressure hasn't turned into panic yet.
The on-chain verdict (the rule for whether a bottom signal is confirmed) still clears 2 of 3 thresholds today: C1's streak 74/7 has long met its bar, and C3's long-term-holder SOPR median edged down to 1.16, still holding above 1; only C2 remains unmet. C2 requires both at least 10 net-inflow days out of 12 and cumulative net inflow of $1 billion; this period the net-inflow day count stayed stuck at 8/12, while cumulative net inflow plunged to +$0.0B, nearly back to zero — further from both thresholds than before. The accumulation counter 2/10 (a separate signal, not part of the verdict), after being reset to zero by the suspected Binance hack, climbed back up this period, moving in the opposite direction from C2. Next, watch whether C2's net inflow amount can stop sliding, and whether the accumulation counter can string together 10 consecutive days.
The BTC bottom call really comes down to one ledger: whether on-chain money is flowing in or out net. Realized cap totals every coin at the price it last moved at, and its slope is that ledger — ±5%/yr marks the line between accumulation and capitulation. Here's where that ledger stands right now:
Not an opinion — chain data lands daily and the ledger recomputes itself.
Rating is TradingView's composite moving-average and oscillator reading (−1 to +1); levels are daily and 4-hour prior highs/lows and Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci levels measured on the 09-15 low $74,888 to the 09-21 high $87,397. These are readings only, not advice.
Network-wide average cost basis (also called realized price): each coin's cost is recorded at the price it last changed hands at, averaged across the whole network (CoinMetrics Community, updated daily). MVRV = current price ÷ average cost basis — for example, 1.5 means the current price is 50% above average cost. Current price, ratio, change, and MVRV all update with live market data and show "—" when unavailable. These are readings only, not advice.
Tracks single transfers of ≥1,000 ETH and USDT/USDC transfers of ≥$10 million, scanning new blocks every 10 minutes. Coins moving into exchanges are usually headed for sale or collateral; coins withdrawn from exchanges usually go into self-custody. Stablecoin minting = new money issued by the issuer, burning = money withdrawn. Exchange addresses come from open-source label sets (eth-labels, etherscan-labels) and coverage isn't complete — unrecognized addresses are labeled "Unknown wallet" or "Contract." Shows "—" if not updated for over 40 minutes. This is data only, not advice.
This page is just a snapshot — the live dashboard keeps moving. The full version includes the historical chart of the composite on-chain score, a 7-day/30-day slope comparison, the macro paradigm's condition count, the MOVE index trend, and the data tables behind every reading.
C2's net-inflow day count held steady this period, but cumulative net inflow reversed and plunged — the current verdict conditions stand at C1 74/7 days, C2 8/12 days of net inflow totaling +$0.0B, C3 median 1.16, with the amount nearly back to zero, further from both the 10-of-12-day and $1 billion thresholds than before. The accumulation counter (a separate basket of accumulation signals, not part of the verdict), after being reset to zero this month for the second time by the suspected Binance hack, climbed back to 2/10 this period — its first upturn since the reset — moving in the opposite direction from C2; the two are tracked independently and neither counts as evidence for the verdict. C1 and C3 already meet their bars; only C2 is holding back the verdict. Next to watch: whether the accumulation counter can string together 10 consecutive days, and whether C2's net inflow amount can stop falling and turn back up. So the signal has not triggered yet.
How the decision rule works: all three conditions (price, on-chain, flows) must be met at the same time to count as triggered — missing even one means it hasn't. The criteria don't get changed mid-stream.
If the on-chain score holds the accumulation zone for a sustained stretch while price doesn't rise, or the turned-positive count clears its bar yet the drawdown still exceeds 30% — that would mean realized cap slope is no longer a valid bottom indicator, and this rule's conditions need to be rewritten.